XRM-PQC

Crypto Quantum Risk Reasoning Engine

Risk Assessment for Post-Quantum Cryptography Migration

EMERGENCY: Blockchain at extreme risk

Bitcoin under no upgrade scenario: Medium-term risk at 70%

Threat Model Analysis

Harvest-Now-Decrypt-Later (HNDL)

CRITICAL
20%

Adversaries collect encrypted transactions today and decrypt them once quantum computers become available.

Now5yr10yr20yr

Private Key Leakage & Non-Rollback

HIGH
30%

Once a private key is compromised, blockchain immutability means the attacker retains permanent access to all historical funds.

Now5yr10yr20yr

Long-Term Key Reuse

HIGH
25%

Repeated use of the same key across multiple transactions increases exposure to quantum attacks.

Now5yr10yr20yr

User Inertia & Migration Failure

HIGH
0%

Not all users will upgrade to PQC-resistant systems in time, leaving legacy assets vulnerable.

Now5yr10yr20yr

Mass Key Exposure During Migration

MEDIUM
0%

Simultaneous key migration can expose many keys to quantum attacks during the transition window.

Now5yr10yr20yr

Analysis Report

Recommendation

EMERGENCY: Blockchain at extreme risk

Threats Analyzed

harvest now-decrypt-later70%
key leakage70%
key reuse70%
user inertia70%
mass exposure70%

Critical Actions

  • →None available in this scenario
  • →Emergency hard fork (too late for many users)
  • →Irreversible loss of value

Quick Stats

Blockchain

bitcoin

Strategy

no upgrade

Migration Window

Year 0 – 30

Risk Trajectory

Threats Analyzed

5

Failure Modes

6

Critical Actions

  • →None available in this scenario
  • →Emergency hard fork (too late for many users)
  • →Irreversible loss of value

About This Analysis

XRM-PQC analyzes quantum-resistance migration risks across different strategies. Use these insights for demo, trial, and collaboration discussions.

XRM-PQC is a risk reasoning engine for quantum-resistance migration. Not a security audit tool.

Use for demo, trial, and collaboration discussions only.